Now, when we get a little closer to November, the polls and the reality will veer more closely together. Right now people are discounting the future, giving answers that they have not genuinely thought out. Let's break this down, shall we? Here's the theory:
- In a presidential election, people vote for a party, not a candidate.
- If the rate of change of the economy is dropping, regardless of how good things actually are, people will vote against the incumbent party.
- If the approval rating of the incumbent president is low, people will vote against that president's party.
- If the president's party has been in the white house for 8 years or more, people will tend to vote against that president's party.
Follow the data as far back as you like. The above conditions hold pretty well, outside of acts of God/terror. McCain will lose. It is what it is.
That said, watching the groundswell under Obama has been entertaining.